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Heavy Lake Effect Snow Closes Roads and School Today

The lake effect machine is at it again. Central New York is receiving yet another round of snow thanks to Lake Ontario. Some areas have already received a foot of snow.

We have several road closings to report:

• ONEIDA COUNTY: Rt. 12 from New Hartford to Waterville - CLOSED since Wednesday
• HERKIMER COUNTY: Rt. 170 from Rt. 29 to the Little Falls line - CLOSED
• HERKIMER COUNTY: Rt. 170-A from Rt. 29 to the Little Falls line - CLOSED
• SYRACUSE/THRUWAY - Exit 39 ramp - CLOSED due to an accident

A number of minor accidents have also been reported in the area.

Check back for more updates throughout the day. Let us know how conditions are in your area by hitting the comment button below.

Back to Lake Effect....When Will it End!? Plus the History Behind the Nor'Easter

Just a quick note. Through tomorrow, if the servers crash on the Original Weather Blog, and you have issues reaching that website, I will post an identical entry on this one, and we'll be monitoring both. Try to keep the comments on the Weather Blog if possible. Thanks for your patience!!

Endless winter in CNY since mid-January. Just a remarkable stretch of weather.


For a full list of totals, go here: http://www.wktv.com/weather/home/5813391.html

Utica Records/CNY Winter So Far

Let me just lay out some of the numbers for you.

Utica's snowfall is 87.1" for the season. That means we only need 11.8" of snow between now and May to crack our normal seasonal snowfall. Our initial winter forecast was for slightly above normal snow, so as long as we don't get any more big storms, this has a good chance of verifying.

Our average temperature so far this winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) is 26.8 degrees. The total normal temperature for a winter is 23.8 degrees. Assuming we have relatively below normal temperatures over the next 7-10 days (despite our "warmup," highs and lows look to average near normal...it'll be a warm up relative to what we've experienced recently). Our forecast was for slightly below normal temperatures, and although that will be a tougher goal to reach, we feel it's possible to get close to normal.

As far as other things of note:

We're up to 53.1" for February, which, while it sets the record for snowiest February on record, it puts us about 6" shy of breaking the record for _all-time_ snowiest month ever.

The 27.0" we recorded from the Valentine's Day Nor'Easter made it the 3rd biggest snowstorm of all-time, the biggest snowstorm in February history, and the snowiest 24 hour period in Utica's history.

The 26.0" we recorded yesterday (we received 1.0" the night before), set a daily snowfall record for Utica on Valentine's Day.

Also of note, in the last 30 days, we've gotten 71.4", which may or may not be a record for 30-day snowfall, but it's downright incredible.

Anyone who may think that this storm was wimpy can put those thoughts to rest.
That said...no rest for the weary...again.

Lake Effect

Lake snows are becoming slowly, but surely, better organized downwind of the lake. Right now the lake is producing a multi-band spray, with the most concentrated band over northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga and central Onondaga Counties, possibly producing 2-3" per hour rates west of about Syracuse. It looks like a secondary concentrated area has formed from Rome back west through Parish in Oswego County back toward the city of Oswego.

As the night goes on, this area of lake effect will slowly work northward, probably settling near where that secondary band is now. At times it will be able to penetrate inland enough to give us in Utica, as well as parts of the Mohawk Valley some moderate snows. That's why we're being conservative with snow totals.

However, the snow will come heavily in western Oneida and Oswego Counties, where we could be talking about some consistent 2-3" per hour rates.

The very latest computer model data (http://bimedia.ftp.clickability.com/wktvwebftp/021507_18_wrf_precip24_F24.gif) suggests about 0.60-0.70" liquid is possible through mid afternoon tomorrow from Camden over to Westdale, with lesser amounts south and east. This is why the thinking is for 12"+ in those areas....with perhaps more like 12-24" being a sufficient range. Basically the further west you go from Rome, the better your odds become at seeing heavy snow.

This should wimper out on Friday afternoon, and other than a few quick light shots of snow possible on Saturday and Sunday, things will be quiet and seasonably cold.

Sunday night and Monday, a brief, but potent, shot of Arctic air dives in. This will lead to more lake effect, although right now, the flow looks too northerly to really cause us much trouble. This would confine most of the snow to areas west of Syracuse.

Then we start to warm up just a bit for midweek, with highs approaching the freezing mark potentially by Wednesday or Thursday. Oddly enough, this would still be...below normal! With our average highs rising, it becomes easier to get this below normal stuff.

Round 3?

I'm not pressing any triggers yet, but I'm a little concerned about the Thursday timeframe of next week.

Check out this morning's Euro model run valid for Thursday morning. (http://bimedia.ftp.clickability.com/wktvwebftp/021507_12_Euro_168.gif)

Yep...that's another coastal low. That's a coastal low in a prime position to nail us.

Let's look at the GFS for some additional help.

Here are the ensemble members' version of the forecast at the same time (Thursday morning). (http://bimedia.ftp.clickability.com/wktvwebftp/021507_12_GFSensembles_168.gif)

Most of them have some type of feature showing up.

A few things to note about this forecast:

1.) We're seven days out, so lots can change.
2.) The Euro has been doing a better job in this timeframe, as usual, most of the winter, than the GFS.
3.) But if this track starts to shift westward over the next 3-5 days, it's possible that we need to introduce a rain/snow mix. We're getting closer to spring now, and closer to "western runner" system season.

There's a lot to think about here, but let's get through the lake effect first.

Utica Shatters February Snow Records! + Lake Effect

Well, it's official. 27.0" for Utica from this storm (1.0" last night, 26.0" today).

For Valentine's Day:

We shattered the old daily snow record of 8.0" set in 1960.

For February:

The 27.0" shattered the all-time February snowstorm record of 24.6" set over 4 days in 1958.

Additionally, the 27.0" puts us at 53.1" for the month. We're only half through it.

That 53.1" for February is enough to land us atop the list of snowiest Februaries. The old snowiest February on record was 40.6", which occurred in 1972.

For All-Time:

The 27.0" makes this the 3rd biggest snowstorm in Utica's history. The only 2 that are ahead of this are the Blizzard of '66 (31.0") and the December 22-24, 1970 storm (27.8").

The 53.1" for February presently puts us at #6 on the list of all-time snowiest months ever in Utica.



Lake Effect

We are looking at lake effect flurries to develop for much of the day tomorrow.

But check out the NWS Buffalo WRF Model heading into the overnight below.

It has an area of about 0.25" liquid spit out. This would lead to, at most, 3-6" or so north and west of Utica.












If you click here: http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2007021412/images_d2/pcp24.48.0000.gif
you'll be able to access another model, the SUNY MM5 model. This spits out about 0.40" from tomorrow morning through Friday morning in Oswego County and about 0.30" in the Thruway corridor west of Herkimer. This means about 3-6" again.

So what's the thinking?

It looks like about a 3-6", low end warning criteria, snowfall is likely.

One thing, and NWS Buffalo mentioned this, is that Lake Huron is now frozen, so the amount of lake effect coming off that body of water will be significantly less than what we saw during last week's mega-event. That means that there is the potential that the model is overdoing how much snow may come off Lake Ontario (since it establishes a slight Huron connection).

Just some food for thought. We'll hone in on this further tomorrow in the original weather blog.

Travel Bans

Herkimer and Otsego Counties are under travel bans. The Otsego ban begins at 5 PM. Road crews simply cannot keep up with the heavy snow. Snow totals in Otsego County range from 18-24" on average, with much higher amounts in the eastern half of the county.

Regardless of travel bans and states of emergency, travel is just not adviseable tonight. There are very few things that you have to do tonight that cannot be done tomorrow. Let's let the road crews get a handle on things.

Here Come the Big Numbers!

Someone will be pushing 40" by the time this is over.

32" Schenevus
31" Piseco
30" Cooperstown
25-30" Little Falls
29" Fort Plain

These numbers continue to rise as heavy snow continues.

With this secondary band right now west of Utica sliding east, expect no let up in the heavy snow over the next 2-3 hours.

5 S Closures

Route 5S is closed currently between the Oneida/Herkimer County line through Ilion. Not that you'd want to be travelling anyway right now!

An Avalanche?

We've just gotten confirmation of a minor avalanche in the Ilion Gorge. Route 51 was partially shut down for a time, but is now re-open.

That just goes to show you what type of storm we're dealing with.

Everything Going to Plan for the Most Part!

We're satisfied with our snow forecast. Officially, we've got Utica pegged at 16" as of 1 PM, but that is likely closer to 18" right now, and 3-6" more should be attainable over the next several hours. Snow totals can be found here: http://www.wktv.com/weather/home/5813391.html

Just to summarize. Clearly, Otsego, eastern Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton and Montgomery Counties, as expected, have been the hardest hit, with 29" in Fort Plain, 26.5" in Piseco (near Lake Pleasant), 24" in Stratford and 23" in Little Falls.

The intense banding is beginning to weaken a bit in that area right now. Snow rates should come down subtley in the next hour, but will still have heavy snow.

Over the Finger Lakes, we are starting to see additional signs of banding ongoing. As this slides east, we should maintain the intensity of the snow for most of CNY, at times having it come down a bit heavier. The evening rush hour (if you can call it that tonight), will be messy. Snow should begin to taper to flurries after 7-10 PM.

As far as snow ratios for this event. Clearly they are high. Assuming about 12-14" in Westmoreland, we have a report of 0.40" of liquid. That's bordering on a 20:1 ratio. In between here and Albany, snow ratios don't mean much because it's just snowing like crazy. East of Albany, snow ratios are probably closer to 8:1 or 9:1....this is because of sleet mixing in at times.

Just to hit on the lake effect issue. Things will be calm overnight, with flurries (a good time to dig out). Most of Thursday will see periodic flurries, but probably nothing worse than that. Thursday night, lake effect will become better organized. Currently, we feel that the North Country will be in the target zone for this aspect of the event. We'll focus on that later tonight.

That's all for now. We just got some information in... Little Falls City Schools are closed for Thursday.

Nor'Easter '07 Packing a Punch.

Snows have rapidly piled high this morning all across the area. Several communities have already issued snow emergancies and we're not through with the heavy accumulations just yet.

As of the 9:00 hour, many areas have already received anywhere from 8"-12" of accumulation. So far at our studios, 9" of snow has accumulated with snowfall rates averaging about 1" per hour for the past several hours. An ongoing list of updated snowfall reports from our SkyWatchers can be found at http://www.wktv.com/weather/home/5273071.html .

Gleaning from the latest computer model data, our snowfall forecast will remain the same...for now. The 6Z run (always take 6 and 18 with a grain of salt) of the WRF shows slightly less precipitation than last evening's 00Z run (see: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_6z/etaloop.html ) on the order of 1 1/2 to 2" liquid equivalent (as opposed to 3" or more). We don't put nearly as much weight in our forecasts with these "off hour" model runs. If the 12Z incarnation of the WRF corroborates this though, then we may need to consider shifting our 12-24 that we currently have for areas west of Syracuse...just a smidge further east. Still it appears that some areas will cash in with over 30", especially east of Utica.

Happy shoveling all!

Poor Road Conditions Across Utica Area

5:55 am - I just finished the trip from New Hartford to WKTV and experienced heavy snow and poor road conditions. The plows are out but the intensity of the snow is making it difficult to keep the roads clear. Here were my observations:

• Oneida Street (Utica) - 3 to 4 inches on the road
• Genesee Street (Utica) - 2 to 3 inches of snow on the road
• Walker Road (Deerfield) - 4 to 5 inches of snow on the road
• Smith Hill Road (Deerfield) - 5 inches of snow on the road

Watch the intersections! They seem to the the biggest problem as you stop for traffic lights and stop signs. Also keep an eye for private snow plows clearing driveways. Some may back out in the road as they clear the snow from the driveway. Because of the low visibility you need to keep an eye on this.

We invite you to post your comments and observations....

Updating a Snow Forecast

This is how we do it.





You see the latest snow forecast. Click it to enlarge.

The 00Z NAM (7 PM computer model run) came in and held serve with what the other models were thinking. As a result, I thought it'd be good to up snowfall totals.

I called and chatted with Amanda. We came to a consensus, and that's how we handle the snow forecast. Basically, our changes are based on a couple things.

First, like we said, the 00Z NAM came in as wet, with over 3" liquid forecast.

Secondly, the snow started quickly here and continues...not that this was unexpected, but it was sudden. We're seeing light accumulations, but at this rate, we'll be adding up quickly tonight.

So as a result, we felt it prudent to make some changes. And that's how we operate.

One thing to ask of you. If you are going to post snow totals, please also email them to us, as there will be periods of time where we can't check everything. weather@wktv.com is the way to do it!

Thank you again!

Welcome to the Nor'Easter 2007 Blog!

PLEASE READ FIRST

We're aware of the slow blog issues. We will set up a "mirror" site tonight to allow for less congestion so that you can get all the info quickly. We'd monitor both and let you know immediately how to handle it. Welcome to the NEWSChannel 2 Nor'Easter 2007 Blog. We'll post everything here as well. Thank you for your loyalty and patience!

Well, we're on the cusp of what should be an historic event for CNY.

Check out the NAM model's total precip for the event from its 18Z run (1 PM):




Here's the same model from the 12Z run (7 AM):



If this verifies we're talking 2-3" liquid, and this is backed up by our other reliable model, the GFS.

This means that we'd see, easily 20"+ almost everywhere. We're being cautious with our forecast of 18-24" currently. We feel there is a good chance that someone will end up with 30"+, and even higher amounts cannot be ruled out at this point.

The other issue tomorrow will be wind. Winds will gust to 30-40 mph, and as seen from a prior post, while this won't be classified officially as a blizzard (at least not right now), there will be hazardous blizzard conditions out there tomorrow and tomorrow night. If you have to venture out for any reason, be prepared for anything. And if you have to travel tomorrow night, bundle up, as wind chills will become downright dangerous.

Then, little rest for the weary, as lake effect is looking to be a real issue Thursday night into Friday. While snow totals from that don't look to go gangbusters here, it will not make our recovery any easier. Thankfully, we feel we'll get a break over the weekend.

We do need to watch the potential for yet another nor'easter early next week. Right now, it's forecasted to track well south and east...but it needs to be watched.

Then, we should see temperatures moderate later next week toward normal, if not slightly above normal, levels. Stay tuned.

Snowfall reports are encouraged from all over CNY. Please email them to weather@wktv.com.

I'll be setting up the table tonight for the dozens of reports we hope to receive.

Thank you again for your patience.