Updating a Snow Forecast

This is how we do it.





You see the latest snow forecast. Click it to enlarge.

The 00Z NAM (7 PM computer model run) came in and held serve with what the other models were thinking. As a result, I thought it'd be good to up snowfall totals.

I called and chatted with Amanda. We came to a consensus, and that's how we handle the snow forecast. Basically, our changes are based on a couple things.

First, like we said, the 00Z NAM came in as wet, with over 3" liquid forecast.

Secondly, the snow started quickly here and continues...not that this was unexpected, but it was sudden. We're seeing light accumulations, but at this rate, we'll be adding up quickly tonight.

So as a result, we felt it prudent to make some changes. And that's how we operate.

One thing to ask of you. If you are going to post snow totals, please also email them to us, as there will be periods of time where we can't check everything. weather@wktv.com is the way to do it!

Thank you again!

Welcome to the Nor'Easter 2007 Blog!

PLEASE READ FIRST

We're aware of the slow blog issues. We will set up a "mirror" site tonight to allow for less congestion so that you can get all the info quickly. We'd monitor both and let you know immediately how to handle it. Welcome to the NEWSChannel 2 Nor'Easter 2007 Blog. We'll post everything here as well. Thank you for your loyalty and patience!

Well, we're on the cusp of what should be an historic event for CNY.

Check out the NAM model's total precip for the event from its 18Z run (1 PM):




Here's the same model from the 12Z run (7 AM):



If this verifies we're talking 2-3" liquid, and this is backed up by our other reliable model, the GFS.

This means that we'd see, easily 20"+ almost everywhere. We're being cautious with our forecast of 18-24" currently. We feel there is a good chance that someone will end up with 30"+, and even higher amounts cannot be ruled out at this point.

The other issue tomorrow will be wind. Winds will gust to 30-40 mph, and as seen from a prior post, while this won't be classified officially as a blizzard (at least not right now), there will be hazardous blizzard conditions out there tomorrow and tomorrow night. If you have to venture out for any reason, be prepared for anything. And if you have to travel tomorrow night, bundle up, as wind chills will become downright dangerous.

Then, little rest for the weary, as lake effect is looking to be a real issue Thursday night into Friday. While snow totals from that don't look to go gangbusters here, it will not make our recovery any easier. Thankfully, we feel we'll get a break over the weekend.

We do need to watch the potential for yet another nor'easter early next week. Right now, it's forecasted to track well south and east...but it needs to be watched.

Then, we should see temperatures moderate later next week toward normal, if not slightly above normal, levels. Stay tuned.

Snowfall reports are encouraged from all over CNY. Please email them to weather@wktv.com.

I'll be setting up the table tonight for the dozens of reports we hope to receive.

Thank you again for your patience.