This is how we do it.
You see the latest snow forecast. Click it to enlarge.
The 00Z NAM (7 PM computer model run) came in and held serve with what the other models were thinking. As a result, I thought it'd be good to up snowfall totals.
I called and chatted with Amanda. We came to a consensus, and that's how we handle the snow forecast. Basically, our changes are based on a couple things.
First, like we said, the 00Z NAM came in as wet, with over 3" liquid forecast.
Secondly, the snow started quickly here and continues...not that this was unexpected, but it was sudden. We're seeing light accumulations, but at this rate, we'll be adding up quickly tonight.
So as a result, we felt it prudent to make some changes. And that's how we operate.
One thing to ask of you. If you are going to post snow totals, please also email them to us, as there will be periods of time where we can't check everything. weather@wktv.com is the way to do it!
Thank you again!
66 comments:
matt, is binghamton in the 24-30 inch zone?
Mike...I think so. A little concerned about some sleet getting into your area. So you might be kept down. But this will be your best storm in a few winters to say the least.
How does this storm rate on a historical level? Will we talk about this storm for years like the one in '93? Thats the last real storm I can remember.
Just want to elaborate on the latest NAM run. It absolutely pummels the corridor between Schenectady and Little Falls with over 3.5" liquid. This is another reason why we upped that corridor and shifted it west a bit....if not expanded it. Places like Cooperstown, Richfield Springs, Little Falls, St. Johnsville, Canajoharie, Lake Pleasant, etc. would do extremely well if this verified.
the latest ooz WRF keeps the sleet south of binghamton, but close, so i am also a little concerned about sleet.( i hate sleet soooo much!!!)
Matt, NE PA is shown to get 3.94 inches of precip according to the latest WRF, even if this did mix with sleet for a while, using 12 to 1 ratios( due to wetter snow and sleet mix) thats still close to 50 inches, and some places in the catskills could get 3.75 inches of prcip with a better chance of being all snow so use 15 to 1 ratios for the catskills and u get close to 60 inches!!! this could be an epic storm!!
ooz gfs is backing down SLIGHTLY, bringing highest qpf totals to right around 3 inches over the catskills, and about 2.25 inches for utica and binghamton.check this sweet future radar sight, slow it doen so u can really see how the band pivots around CNY.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_0z/jloop.html
OK, I've been waiting to ask this question for quite a while...when the conditions were right. Just watching the 11pm weather on WKTV and see that the storm is moving into our area from the Ohio Valley- so coming from the southwest (right?). But, the wind direction is coming from the East. I get it that the nor'easter is coming from the east coast so that might have something to do with it. I've seen this before and wondered how it happens. Know you are busy tonight but when you can......thanks.
the main low was over the ohio valley, but now it will transfer its enery to a rapidly developing coastal low,which will track from just east of washington ,DC. to central long island, and the circulation of the low causes our winds to be from the North East.
translation please---what does NAM and ooz wrf mean?
lb, What you have is a low pressure system that is moving in a NE direction. Wind around a low rotates in a counter-clockwise direction sort of like a very large hurricane. Currently we are at the top of the low so the wind is blowing from the east. As the low move past us to the east, the wind will eventually shift NE and then north. Once the system moves far enough away, normal wind patterns (west) will prevail.
Sean (Utica)
NAM- computer model
00z- some type of time zone i believe it equals about 7 pm eastern time- the z time zone is used on computer models
WRF- another computer model
Mike summed it up. Our storm is mainly the coastal storm. The one in the Ohio Valley will be weakening tonight while the coastal storm explodes. Also yes, the NAM and WRF are acronyms for computer models we use.
With Tonight and Tommorrow only being in the mid-teens I would think it would be more like 20:1 ratios. 2.0-3.0" precip would be 40'60" inches of snow. Even say 15:1 ratios that would still bring 30-45" of snow. That's crazy!!
Thanks, Mike and anonymous. One low pressure area transferring its energy to another low pressure area..that sounds like an interesting process! It will be interesting to me to see where the winds will come from if/when they pick up to create the (close-to) blizzard conditions. Won't they come from the west or southwest?
Thanks for the info on computers models. okay now what are those ratios? I'm guessing like inches per hour? Thanks again
Joyce say 10:1 that means 10 inches of snow to every inch.
20:1 would mean 20 inches of snow to every inch.
So with most of the area being in total precip of say average 2.5 inches. With a snow ratio of 20:1 that would be about 50 inches of snow. I would doubt that would happen but that's what the models are saying.
Joyce,
Ratios are inches of snow for every 1 inch of precipitation. For example, 10:1 means 10 inches of snow from 1 inch of precipitation. Usually the colder it is outside, the higher the ratio. 20:1, 25:1 and on and on. To figure out how much snow is expected, multiply the amount of expected precipitation times the snow ratio. For example, 2 inches of precipitation X 10:1 = 20 inches of snow. ( 2.0 X 10:1 = 20 inches).
Well She has finally arrived as promised so far I noticed the snow falling around 9pm tuesday night and it's coming down at a good rate so far. It is looking really good for at least 24 to 30 inches right now. I am ready so bring it on. This looks to be comparable to the Christmas 2002 storm at this time would anyone agree on this? I will be reporting with totals
Rob, Greetings! I was wondering where you were. I didn't think you would miss a potentially epic event like this.
This storm is also producing severe weather in the south. A tornado struck the New Orleans area earlier this morning destroying dozens of the trailers that were issued by FEMA during Katrina. 1 was killed and many were injured.
Dave I have been tracking the storm all day just having problems connecting to the blog. Still can't load up to get a google account. Snow is picking up here with an 1 inch on the ground.
Chris, I would say from what is currently forecast, this looks to be worse than the Christmas 2002 storm. ALSO, here are some school closings to pass along, CANAJOHARIE CSD, ST JOHNSVILLE CSD, FORT PLAIN CSD, and LITTLE FALLS CSD will all be closed Wednesday. Basically, every school and college will be shut down tommorrow. These snowfall totals just keep getting higher and higher!
Hey everyone, I am Jill, a senior at SUNY Albany and the old weather intern at WKTV over the summer....I am quite excited about this storm because Albany's winter is boring compared to Utica's....I just wanted to inform everyone that albany has received about 1 to 2 inches as of right now and it is coming down moderatly...SUNY Albany has already cancelled classes for tomorrow, so I am pumped....I will keep you guys updated on the weather here in Albany
lb: They'd be coming from the northeast or east believe it or not. The winds will take over and you won't notice much shifting around from here on in.
Jill! Thanks for checking in. Keep us posted on the totals from the ALB. We could actually use you here tomorrow. Oh well. Stay safe and have fun. Nothing better than being snowed in for college. It happened to me on President's Day 2003...a top 5 college memory. Enjoy!
coming down hard now in binghamton, visibilities near or less than a quater mile. about 4 inches do far, about 1-2 inches per hour now, keep it coming!!
scranton wilkles-barre airport already over to unknown precip( most likely sleet) but mount pocono still has snow, along with williamsport,state college, harrisburg, and bradford. sleet falling at johnstown, clearfield, and scranton now, hope that sleet stays far south i hate it.
It's snowing fairly hard here aswell, but again with small flakes. We have 1.25 inches so far.
Jim Cantore from TWC said 4-6"per hour rates will be common tommorrow in Central and Eastern NY with thunder and lightning.
Funny story for you all. Gault Toyota in Endicott City, near Binghamton had a promotion from February 1-7.... buy a car and if it snows 6" or more on Valentine's Day, get $5,000 back.....woops! :)
4-6 INCHES PER HOUR!!!W O W !! That's almost unimaginable! I hope that happens, I would like to experience something that intense.
LOL Matt, I bet that marketing person will be looking for a new job come Thursday morning.
WoW they probably thought what were the odds of it snowing 6"+ on Valentines Day when they haven't had a 6" storm all year let alone even on the ground.
Matt now that the storm is here will the 6z run be more effective. I know you always say to ignore it but being that the storm is in its developing stages I was wondering if it would be more accurate than usuall?
Here in North Columbia, about 850 feet above river level at Ilion, have about 2 inches since 9 PM, most in the last hour. Winds going up and drifting, snowfall rate increasing steadily. Looking more and more like my vehicle will be hard to find by daylight!
A little over an inch in northern floyd, snows are picking up slowly...
Rob, The main thing we want to focus on now is the placement of that ridiculous band of heavy snow on Wednesday afternoon/evening. At this point it appears to be from Little Falls through Albany, eastern Otsego County, and Hamilton County. If that shifts 15-20 miles either way, we'll need to shift the axis of heaviest snow, and that will be the key with the 6Z (1 AM) run.
Copy and paste this link into your browser for an 11 image Java loop:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&itype=irbw&size=large&endDate=20070214&endTime=-1&duration=3
This storm is exploding on the Carolina Coast
When will you have the updated storm totals?
Our forecast is out and will likely only be tweaked tomorrow a little bit. Updated storm totals will be updated as we have time during the morning. Adam and Bill will both be in, so I think we should keep them updating. We have nothing new to add though at this time. I'm out for now. I'll check in once more before sleep.
Matt,
Will elevation be a big factor in snow totals with this storm?
matt, what do u think about the sleet in binghamton? williamsport is now mixing with sleet, but scrantons back to snow as of 1 am
when an area of yellow precip on the radar came over binghamton it appeared that we had sleet mix in for about 5 min :( the visibility rose to about2 miles for 5 min now its snowing hard again visibility about .25 miles, there is another batch of heavy precip coming up from the south, it will probably mix with sleet again here, hopefully only for a few minutes.
I am fascinated with the information you all share! I can't add much except this - I was alive in '66 and yes, we had snow up to the lower roof of our split level in Camillus, NY! We joke about sledding off the roof but I was only 4 and can't remember!
I may have an idea what the "6z" etc means...doesn't it refer to "zulu" time which is Greenwich mean time? This is the time reference used by military pilots and I think commercial as well?
Mike M,
I don't know how to read the models to good yet + I'm color blind so that certainly doesn't help...Did you happen to see what the 6z said?
I think I got this right. The OOz is 7:00pm and the 6z is 6 hours later 1:00am. If I'm wrong, I apolagize.
Me again. If 6z=1AM here in EST, that means it is 6AM in Greenwich Mean Time, for example, England, UK. They are 5 hours ahead of us. When we are at midnight, they are at 5AM or 5Z. I only remember this because my husband was a pilot for the USAF and we lived in England for a few years. Otherwise, I would never have known!
dave, theoretically the 6z is suppose to come out at 1 am, but i doesnt come out until at least 330 am.
Anonymous,
You very well could be right. I can't tell you for sure on that, but it sounds logical to me.
Mike, WHUUUPPS! I guess I stand corrected. Thanks for straightening me out on that.
It's 2:00am. We have just over 2.5 inches so far. It's snowing between 1 and 2 inches per hour now.
Hey guys. Yes, elevation will play a role. It usually does. But in this instance, it's not to say the valleys will get shafted. Obviously, everyone will join the party. Mike...sleet will mix in at times south of I-88. That will be a limiting factor there, but not tremendously so. And you guys nailed the 6Z... 1 AM...model data comes out after 3:30-4.
Roads are messy too all....not as bad as they've been, but driving is no picnic. Take your time tonight.
it has noe changed to sleet here, how long before we go back to snow?
As of 2:30 AM we were at 2.1 inches and still snowing pretty good.
Heading to bed. Radar representation shows sleet in the southern Tier as of 3 AM, but the moisture feed is south to north now, which means we're in this. You can see signs of banding showing up in Fulton, Montgomery, Otsego, Schoharie, and Chenango Counties. This will lift toward us now. Heavy snow should arrive in Utica by 4 AM.
Hi Everyone.. took a trip home for lunch and found 4.5 inches of snow already as of 3am in yorkville. This is my first chance to take a measurement. MY next one will be around 9am or so. The roads are really band and snow is coming down moderatly and heavy in spots. Winds are kicking the snow up a bit to. The visibility is poor as well. South Utica where i am working tonight is up to 4" with moderate to heavy snow falling. The city of utica has made one pass thru with the plow already but after 20 minutes it doesnt look any different than before.
This Is George From Herk/Scuh line.Hey everyone it's off to the races here I have 6 inches now.
I think the schools up here are simply closing because it's supposed to get worse.
I have measured 5.6 inches as of 5:30 here in Rome. 1.7 of that fell in the last hour.
Good Morning---in Boonville at 6am there's five inches on theground, snowing moderately, temp -3*F
Just measured off of our back deck, which was clean before this all started. At 6:20am, we have 8.5 inches. You know its a lot of snow when your 18" tall dog looks twice at you before going "out" into the snow (and we aren't even done yet!!). Great job weather team, keep up the good work!!
Does anyone think we will experience power outages?
Lisa,
Power outages shouldn't be an issue, because this snow is light and fluffy. It will not stick to the trees.
Is anyone else concern about that blob of reds and yellows making it to CNY because it is slowly moving northward and slightly westward. It looks like some snow bursts are starting to develope towards sydney.
can you believe it?? On the today show they told Stebuben County residents to not call 911 for road conditions.
You should NEVER call 911 for road conditions, ESPECIALLY during a storm! Use the non emergency numbrs or the sheriff office number for your area!
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