Utica Shatters February Snow Records! + Lake Effect

Well, it's official. 27.0" for Utica from this storm (1.0" last night, 26.0" today).

For Valentine's Day:

We shattered the old daily snow record of 8.0" set in 1960.

For February:

The 27.0" shattered the all-time February snowstorm record of 24.6" set over 4 days in 1958.

Additionally, the 27.0" puts us at 53.1" for the month. We're only half through it.

That 53.1" for February is enough to land us atop the list of snowiest Februaries. The old snowiest February on record was 40.6", which occurred in 1972.

For All-Time:

The 27.0" makes this the 3rd biggest snowstorm in Utica's history. The only 2 that are ahead of this are the Blizzard of '66 (31.0") and the December 22-24, 1970 storm (27.8").

The 53.1" for February presently puts us at #6 on the list of all-time snowiest months ever in Utica.



Lake Effect

We are looking at lake effect flurries to develop for much of the day tomorrow.

But check out the NWS Buffalo WRF Model heading into the overnight below.

It has an area of about 0.25" liquid spit out. This would lead to, at most, 3-6" or so north and west of Utica.












If you click here: http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2007021412/images_d2/pcp24.48.0000.gif
you'll be able to access another model, the SUNY MM5 model. This spits out about 0.40" from tomorrow morning through Friday morning in Oswego County and about 0.30" in the Thruway corridor west of Herkimer. This means about 3-6" again.

So what's the thinking?

It looks like about a 3-6", low end warning criteria, snowfall is likely.

One thing, and NWS Buffalo mentioned this, is that Lake Huron is now frozen, so the amount of lake effect coming off that body of water will be significantly less than what we saw during last week's mega-event. That means that there is the potential that the model is overdoing how much snow may come off Lake Ontario (since it establishes a slight Huron connection).

Just some food for thought. We'll hone in on this further tomorrow in the original weather blog.

Travel Bans

Herkimer and Otsego Counties are under travel bans. The Otsego ban begins at 5 PM. Road crews simply cannot keep up with the heavy snow. Snow totals in Otsego County range from 18-24" on average, with much higher amounts in the eastern half of the county.

Regardless of travel bans and states of emergency, travel is just not adviseable tonight. There are very few things that you have to do tonight that cannot be done tomorrow. Let's let the road crews get a handle on things.

Here Come the Big Numbers!

Someone will be pushing 40" by the time this is over.

32" Schenevus
31" Piseco
30" Cooperstown
25-30" Little Falls
29" Fort Plain

These numbers continue to rise as heavy snow continues.

With this secondary band right now west of Utica sliding east, expect no let up in the heavy snow over the next 2-3 hours.

5 S Closures

Route 5S is closed currently between the Oneida/Herkimer County line through Ilion. Not that you'd want to be travelling anyway right now!

An Avalanche?

We've just gotten confirmation of a minor avalanche in the Ilion Gorge. Route 51 was partially shut down for a time, but is now re-open.

That just goes to show you what type of storm we're dealing with.

Everything Going to Plan for the Most Part!

We're satisfied with our snow forecast. Officially, we've got Utica pegged at 16" as of 1 PM, but that is likely closer to 18" right now, and 3-6" more should be attainable over the next several hours. Snow totals can be found here: http://www.wktv.com/weather/home/5813391.html

Just to summarize. Clearly, Otsego, eastern Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton and Montgomery Counties, as expected, have been the hardest hit, with 29" in Fort Plain, 26.5" in Piseco (near Lake Pleasant), 24" in Stratford and 23" in Little Falls.

The intense banding is beginning to weaken a bit in that area right now. Snow rates should come down subtley in the next hour, but will still have heavy snow.

Over the Finger Lakes, we are starting to see additional signs of banding ongoing. As this slides east, we should maintain the intensity of the snow for most of CNY, at times having it come down a bit heavier. The evening rush hour (if you can call it that tonight), will be messy. Snow should begin to taper to flurries after 7-10 PM.

As far as snow ratios for this event. Clearly they are high. Assuming about 12-14" in Westmoreland, we have a report of 0.40" of liquid. That's bordering on a 20:1 ratio. In between here and Albany, snow ratios don't mean much because it's just snowing like crazy. East of Albany, snow ratios are probably closer to 8:1 or 9:1....this is because of sleet mixing in at times.

Just to hit on the lake effect issue. Things will be calm overnight, with flurries (a good time to dig out). Most of Thursday will see periodic flurries, but probably nothing worse than that. Thursday night, lake effect will become better organized. Currently, we feel that the North Country will be in the target zone for this aspect of the event. We'll focus on that later tonight.

That's all for now. We just got some information in... Little Falls City Schools are closed for Thursday.

Nor'Easter '07 Packing a Punch.

Snows have rapidly piled high this morning all across the area. Several communities have already issued snow emergancies and we're not through with the heavy accumulations just yet.

As of the 9:00 hour, many areas have already received anywhere from 8"-12" of accumulation. So far at our studios, 9" of snow has accumulated with snowfall rates averaging about 1" per hour for the past several hours. An ongoing list of updated snowfall reports from our SkyWatchers can be found at http://www.wktv.com/weather/home/5273071.html .

Gleaning from the latest computer model data, our snowfall forecast will remain the same...for now. The 6Z run (always take 6 and 18 with a grain of salt) of the WRF shows slightly less precipitation than last evening's 00Z run (see: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_6z/etaloop.html ) on the order of 1 1/2 to 2" liquid equivalent (as opposed to 3" or more). We don't put nearly as much weight in our forecasts with these "off hour" model runs. If the 12Z incarnation of the WRF corroborates this though, then we may need to consider shifting our 12-24 that we currently have for areas west of Syracuse...just a smidge further east. Still it appears that some areas will cash in with over 30", especially east of Utica.

Happy shoveling all!

Poor Road Conditions Across Utica Area

5:55 am - I just finished the trip from New Hartford to WKTV and experienced heavy snow and poor road conditions. The plows are out but the intensity of the snow is making it difficult to keep the roads clear. Here were my observations:

• Oneida Street (Utica) - 3 to 4 inches on the road
• Genesee Street (Utica) - 2 to 3 inches of snow on the road
• Walker Road (Deerfield) - 4 to 5 inches of snow on the road
• Smith Hill Road (Deerfield) - 5 inches of snow on the road

Watch the intersections! They seem to the the biggest problem as you stop for traffic lights and stop signs. Also keep an eye for private snow plows clearing driveways. Some may back out in the road as they clear the snow from the driveway. Because of the low visibility you need to keep an eye on this.

We invite you to post your comments and observations....