For Valentine's Day:
We shattered the old daily snow record of 8.0" set in 1960.
For February:
The 27.0" shattered the all-time February snowstorm record of 24.6" set over 4 days in 1958.
Additionally, the 27.0" puts us at 53.1" for the month. We're only half through it.
That 53.1" for February is enough to land us atop the list of snowiest Februaries. The old snowiest February on record was 40.6", which occurred in 1972.
For All-Time:
The 27.0" makes this the 3rd biggest snowstorm in Utica's history. The only 2 that are ahead of this are the Blizzard of '66 (31.0") and the December 22-24, 1970 storm (27.8").
The 53.1" for February presently puts us at #6 on the list of all-time snowiest months ever in Utica.
Lake Effect
We are looking at lake effect flurries to develop for much of the day tomorrow.
But check out the NWS Buffalo WRF Model heading into the overnight below.
It has an area of about 0.25" liquid spit out. This would lead to, at most, 3-6" or so north and west of Utica.If you click here: http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2007021412/images_d2/pcp24.48.0000.gif
you'll be able to access another model, the SUNY MM5 model. This spits out about 0.40" from tomorrow morning through Friday morning in Oswego County and about 0.30" in the Thruway corridor west of Herkimer. This means about 3-6" again.
So what's the thinking?
It looks like about a 3-6", low end warning criteria, snowfall is likely.
One thing, and NWS Buffalo mentioned this, is that Lake Huron is now frozen, so the amount of lake effect coming off that body of water will be significantly less than what we saw during last week's mega-event. That means that there is the potential that the model is overdoing how much snow may come off Lake Ontario (since it establishes a slight Huron connection).
Just some food for thought. We'll hone in on this further tomorrow in the original weather blog.
36 comments:
I'll Take another 3-6".
Just curious whats expected in the already buried Oswego county area and the Tug.
It's crazy how you guys got 8" more than me today. I guess you gotta draw the line somewhere.
But total snow on the ground here is 35", so I am not complaining what so ever.
Lots of times when we get LES I noticed that I get 3-4 more inches than you guys. It's weird but that's how it goes in CNY.
Rob...you could see it on radar...the main zone was pushing north...hit Utica and stopped. It was surreal to watch.
As for the LES zones...not thinking much more than another 12", which should be a cakewalk up there at this point. I think though that the heavier amounts will occur south and west of where last week's zone was (closer to Cayuga/western Oswego, as opposed to eastern Oswego/southern Lewis)
One more question before I call it quits tonight. There was rumors of a possible coastal storm around Presidents day and I was wondering how it looked at this point.
The storm is gone on the GFS. This might be it for the big storms of the season. It looks like a pretty nice warm up after next week for a while with a couple of west running storms too.
For a day's end total of 41.4" of snow for one event is a record for me. I measured 24" for a total on the Christmas Day 2002 event.
Lots of exercise today taking measurements and I used more math than I have in awhile. I was raised where I live now and I'm sure we had some real snow dumps in those days but unfortunately I didn't take measurements in those days. I'm happy we've got snow for all the snow lovers. Enjoy! Getting cold, 5 degrees at 00:05. Matt & the rest of the team - GREAT JOB! thank you.
Rob, It's still there, but noticeably less impressive. It should be a miss wide right. I'm looking at the latest run of the models, and I'm thinking we may need to introduce a rain/snow mix here by Wednesday of next week. Not a wild warm up, but certainly get out this weekend and early next week and enjoy what we've got!
Matt, any idea the max temps?
One good thing that could come out of winter leaving, we could get all the crap the snow leaves in the yards out.
Though this does not have to do with the snow, why was no news given to the fact that the Village of Clayville had a major water main break and with all this snow, village residents do not even have running water. This has been for over 24 hours but nothing has been reported on this....
Im in Oriskany, are we going to be seeing that 3-6 inches tonight?? And how is fridays weather looking (its my daughter bday), and sunday is her party.. So how is sundays weather looking also?
Not showing up on radar but snowing lightly here. It looks like another wild 24hrs where somepeople are going to see heavy snow and their neighbors will be getting flurries.
Are we considered the"neighbors" for the weather today?
Lisa were back into LES mode. The band should set-up right around our area. We'll have to see how intense it will get. Heaviest might be just a few miles to the north. Right now its not well organized but lgt. snow has been falling here for the last hour.
After having bout after bout of LES and now the Nor'Easter we have a 5 foot snow pack near L. Ontario. But as quickly as it came, it may disappear. Here is some interesting reading. Everyone ready to go back to December and early January weather? This was extracted from the NWS Buffalo Discussion. Looks like flooding is going to become a major concern.
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE DISTANT HORIZON! THIS NEWS WORTHY
OCCURRENCE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS
NOW...ALONG WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE FORECAST SOLUTION OF THE
CPC PNA INDEX.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL FINALLY
SUCCEED IN BREAKING DOWN THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE...AND AS A
RESULT A NUMBER OF THINGS WILL HAPPEN. A LARGE SOURCE OF ARCTIC AIR
OVER EASTERN EUROPE WILL BREAK LOOSE AND MAKE ITS WAY TO SIBERIA...
WHILE OUR SMALLER POLAR VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL
WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TO THE YUKON. THIS WILL SET UP A STRONG ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE WINTER. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN
LIKELY EVOLVE INTO RIDGING ACROS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO MILDER WEATHER.
TO PUT IT SIMPLY...THE AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WILL
BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PACIFIC AIR POURING ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS WILL RAISE H8 TEMPS TO LEVELS WARMER THAN -10C...WHICH
IS WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
NOTICEABLE TREND TOWARDS 'MILDER' WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. ALONG WITH THE MILDER WEATHER THOUGH
WILL COME THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS FROM SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT...SO THAT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSLEY WATCHED AS CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.
Just another quick comment, my house is located in an area were I pick up Rochester and Syracuse news stations. Both cities have forcasted highs mid next week into the upper 30's and a chance of making into the 40's!
I have mixed feelings as to whether or not I want that to happen. I am starting to itch for summer and my pool to be open!
PJF..I would like to stay in the 20's for the rest of FEB. Not to cold and just cold enough to keep our snow. Its to early for 40's.
Bring on 40 degrees... I read the short term forecast but it doesnt say how the weather will be for tomorrow, can someone fill me in? What time can we expect the LES snow to start falling tonight>?
All though its not showing up on radar,as far as I can tell its been snowing lightly here since atleast 7:30am.Over the past 45 minutes or so, the snow has been coming down a little heavier and the wind has also picked up a bit.
Is this the LES we were suposed to get this afternoon? or is this just an added bonus? Wow!as I am writing this, the snow has dropped off to very light flurries. CRAZY WEATHER!
We need an updated blog entry, are we continuing to use this one or back to the old one
Lisa...no real changes, I don't think, to our thinking. The snow map is on wktv.com's front page. The latest models don't suggest anything different right now. Mainly north of the Thruway...specifically Rome-ish/Oneida Lake northward and westward looks to be in the target zone. Snow could come heavily at times early tonight before it shifts north of the Thruway...or so it seems.
How is fridays weather looking?
Light snow has turned into moderate snow the last hour here and visability has been less than a half a mile at times as squalls are also bringing very strong wind gusts.
Heaviest lake effect is south of here, over southern Oneida and northern Madison. Looks like occasional flurries, with a briefly heavy squall or two here and there. Eventually, those heavier squalls will start to march northward and set up north of the Thruway.
Three - six inches more? Piece of cake!!
Models really beefed up there totals the last few runs especially up north. The NAM & WRF has the thruway corridor around .50" for 36hrs.
Maybe we can get lucky. Nonetheless any snow that falls will be blinding with these winds. Still very low visability as squalls persist here.
It's not snowing up here at Hillcrest Manor in Utica, but the wind is awful and it's causing poor visibility! If this is supposed to continue into tomorrow, I may think twice about sending my daughter to school. It's not worth risking an accident for one more lousy day. I got stuck just going down the hill this morning at 5:40am!
Here in Holland Patent the wind is horrid I don't know the exact wind gust but looks and feels to be a 30 miles an hour . When the small band of snow passed through visabilty dropped to less than quarter mile . This is worse than the storm it's self . 5 to 10 degrees warmer would be nice right now .
Rob,
At this point, "lucky" means no more snow. We can't really handle much more. Let's just keep what we have for as long as it takes to keep the winter enthusiasts happy, and then the Springsters can hopefully have their wish.
I'm going to take further conversation on the LES back to the Weather Blog: http://wktv.linkjam.com/weather/blogs.php
Breif sqaull just came through south utica, and it was nasty out with the winds near whiteout conditions.....and with the hint of sun peaking through its hard to just see outside in general.....radar shows the band intesifying some looks like the ride home for many may be white.
the normal blog is again hard to get into./
Hopefully the winds love that SWWWW direction (Just a tad south of west).
The old blog is on a server that simply cannot handle the load. Hopefully, they move it to the main WKTV site using WordPress or Movable Type.
Hi Matt, do think the lake effect snow will cause any traveling issues tomorrow? I have a precious Hilton Mobile and I would die if anything happened to it!
What's a Hilton Mobile Sean?? Anyway, I sincerely hope Utica City Schools close tomorrow. As an earlier blogger pointed out, it would be silly to send students for one day in the wind and cold. Plus, we could get a fair amount of snow.
WKTV Mets----what is Utica's snow storm total for Christmas 2002.
And I can't believe the Blizzard of '66 was a total of 31 inches. Geeze--I rememebr so much more in Deerfield---of course I was only five bu t the pictures don't lie!!!!
Who knows where to download XRumer 5.0 Palladium?
Help, please. All recommend this program to effectively advertise on the Internet, this is the best program!
Very nicce!
Dont touch WIKILEAKS, faked DEMOCRACY!!!
Hope for answer
Post a Comment