Back to Lake Effect....When Will it End!? Plus the History Behind the Nor'Easter

Just a quick note. Through tomorrow, if the servers crash on the Original Weather Blog, and you have issues reaching that website, I will post an identical entry on this one, and we'll be monitoring both. Try to keep the comments on the Weather Blog if possible. Thanks for your patience!!

Endless winter in CNY since mid-January. Just a remarkable stretch of weather.


For a full list of totals, go here: http://www.wktv.com/weather/home/5813391.html

Utica Records/CNY Winter So Far

Let me just lay out some of the numbers for you.

Utica's snowfall is 87.1" for the season. That means we only need 11.8" of snow between now and May to crack our normal seasonal snowfall. Our initial winter forecast was for slightly above normal snow, so as long as we don't get any more big storms, this has a good chance of verifying.

Our average temperature so far this winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) is 26.8 degrees. The total normal temperature for a winter is 23.8 degrees. Assuming we have relatively below normal temperatures over the next 7-10 days (despite our "warmup," highs and lows look to average near normal...it'll be a warm up relative to what we've experienced recently). Our forecast was for slightly below normal temperatures, and although that will be a tougher goal to reach, we feel it's possible to get close to normal.

As far as other things of note:

We're up to 53.1" for February, which, while it sets the record for snowiest February on record, it puts us about 6" shy of breaking the record for _all-time_ snowiest month ever.

The 27.0" we recorded from the Valentine's Day Nor'Easter made it the 3rd biggest snowstorm of all-time, the biggest snowstorm in February history, and the snowiest 24 hour period in Utica's history.

The 26.0" we recorded yesterday (we received 1.0" the night before), set a daily snowfall record for Utica on Valentine's Day.

Also of note, in the last 30 days, we've gotten 71.4", which may or may not be a record for 30-day snowfall, but it's downright incredible.

Anyone who may think that this storm was wimpy can put those thoughts to rest.
That said...no rest for the weary...again.

Lake Effect

Lake snows are becoming slowly, but surely, better organized downwind of the lake. Right now the lake is producing a multi-band spray, with the most concentrated band over northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga and central Onondaga Counties, possibly producing 2-3" per hour rates west of about Syracuse. It looks like a secondary concentrated area has formed from Rome back west through Parish in Oswego County back toward the city of Oswego.

As the night goes on, this area of lake effect will slowly work northward, probably settling near where that secondary band is now. At times it will be able to penetrate inland enough to give us in Utica, as well as parts of the Mohawk Valley some moderate snows. That's why we're being conservative with snow totals.

However, the snow will come heavily in western Oneida and Oswego Counties, where we could be talking about some consistent 2-3" per hour rates.

The very latest computer model data (http://bimedia.ftp.clickability.com/wktvwebftp/021507_18_wrf_precip24_F24.gif) suggests about 0.60-0.70" liquid is possible through mid afternoon tomorrow from Camden over to Westdale, with lesser amounts south and east. This is why the thinking is for 12"+ in those areas....with perhaps more like 12-24" being a sufficient range. Basically the further west you go from Rome, the better your odds become at seeing heavy snow.

This should wimper out on Friday afternoon, and other than a few quick light shots of snow possible on Saturday and Sunday, things will be quiet and seasonably cold.

Sunday night and Monday, a brief, but potent, shot of Arctic air dives in. This will lead to more lake effect, although right now, the flow looks too northerly to really cause us much trouble. This would confine most of the snow to areas west of Syracuse.

Then we start to warm up just a bit for midweek, with highs approaching the freezing mark potentially by Wednesday or Thursday. Oddly enough, this would still be...below normal! With our average highs rising, it becomes easier to get this below normal stuff.

Round 3?

I'm not pressing any triggers yet, but I'm a little concerned about the Thursday timeframe of next week.

Check out this morning's Euro model run valid for Thursday morning. (http://bimedia.ftp.clickability.com/wktvwebftp/021507_12_Euro_168.gif)

Yep...that's another coastal low. That's a coastal low in a prime position to nail us.

Let's look at the GFS for some additional help.

Here are the ensemble members' version of the forecast at the same time (Thursday morning). (http://bimedia.ftp.clickability.com/wktvwebftp/021507_12_GFSensembles_168.gif)

Most of them have some type of feature showing up.

A few things to note about this forecast:

1.) We're seven days out, so lots can change.
2.) The Euro has been doing a better job in this timeframe, as usual, most of the winter, than the GFS.
3.) But if this track starts to shift westward over the next 3-5 days, it's possible that we need to introduce a rain/snow mix. We're getting closer to spring now, and closer to "western runner" system season.

There's a lot to think about here, but let's get through the lake effect first.