We're aware of the slow blog issues. We will set up a "mirror" site tonight to allow for less congestion so that you can get all the info quickly. We'd monitor both and let you know immediately how to handle it. Welcome to the NEWSChannel 2 Nor'Easter 2007 Blog. We'll post everything here as well. Thank you for your loyalty and patience!
Well, we're on the cusp of what should be an historic event for CNY.
Check out the NAM model's total precip for the event from its 18Z run (1 PM):
Here's the same model from the 12Z run (7 AM):
If this verifies we're talking 2-3" liquid, and this is backed up by our other reliable model, the GFS.
This means that we'd see, easily 20"+ almost everywhere. We're being cautious with our forecast of 18-24" currently. We feel there is a good chance that someone will end up with 30"+, and even higher amounts cannot be ruled out at this point.
The other issue tomorrow will be wind. Winds will gust to 30-40 mph, and as seen from a prior post, while this won't be classified officially as a blizzard (at least not right now), there will be hazardous blizzard conditions out there tomorrow and tomorrow night. If you have to venture out for any reason, be prepared for anything. And if you have to travel tomorrow night, bundle up, as wind chills will become downright dangerous.
Then, little rest for the weary, as lake effect is looking to be a real issue Thursday night into Friday. While snow totals from that don't look to go gangbusters here, it will not make our recovery any easier. Thankfully, we feel we'll get a break over the weekend.
We do need to watch the potential for yet another nor'easter early next week. Right now, it's forecasted to track well south and east...but it needs to be watched.
Then, we should see temperatures moderate later next week toward normal, if not slightly above normal, levels. Stay tuned.
Snowfall reports are encouraged from all over CNY. Please email them to weather@wktv.com.
I'll be setting up the table tonight for the dozens of reports we hope to receive.
Thank you again for your patience.
95 comments:
Thank you for keeping us all on track with this first Nor'Easter of the Year! The time and effort that is put into your forecasts and blogs is appreciated. The air is certainly heavy with moisture and as my grandfather used to say you can "smell" the snow in air. The only thing left to do is wait and watch
PAY RAISES FOR THE KTV METEOROLOGISTS!!
Thanks for the great setup guys. Just a quick update from here, Chenango County already under Travel advisory until further notice. Also the snow has started here and already sticking in the southern areas. I will be going home to sleep at 11pm but will be back into work by 10am tom!
The Storm Prediction Center arm of the National Weather Service (issues Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches) also does some winter work. They've posted what we call a "mesoscale discussion" (basically a short term forecast for a small area) here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0161.html
I will paste the text below:
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT NRN IND/SRN LOWER
MI/EXTREME NRN OH AND NRN PA BEFORE MOVING INTO NY THIS EVENING.
SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS THIS EVENING SHOW UPPER LOW NEAR BLOOMINGTON IND
WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO SRN INDIANA/CNTRL KY AND
SW OH. THE LAST BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS MOVING E/SE ACROSS CNTRL IL
WITH MODERATE SNOW EXTENDING FROM EVV TO MIE IN INDIANA. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS IL/IND...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT SNOW RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.
SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN NY TONIGHT...BUT VERY DRY AIR AT
THE SFC HAS PREVENTED VERY HEAVY SNOW THUS FAR. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NY...AND WITH HEAVY SNOW NOW ACROSS NRN
OH...IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO LONG BEFORE PRECIPITATION FILLS IN. NCEP
SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NY BETWEEN
03-06Z...WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RATES AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR.
Nothing here yet.
Matt, did you get that email I sent to the weather address about other blogging software (a free one)
Mike S, we did. We will look into it. Thank you.
Snow has begun here in Deerfield, just a light, fluffy, powdery snow.
Can anyone explain what "thunder snow" is and do you think that power outages are possible with this storm. Any indication if we would be receiving more than 24 inches? Just hoping!
Lisa, to my best understanding, "thunder snow" is simply snow, that while falling, you hear thunder. It's basically a thunderstorm, just with snow.
Okay I poseted this in the other blog but not sure if it went.....Some sources (ie Weather Channel) are showing this storm to last through Wednesday night (predicting 6-10 more inches then), is this storm slowing down???? What is the Crew's take on duration of the storm?
Lisa... as Mike S said...thundersnow is a thunderstorm, but with snow. It's a lot more rare. We're not forecasting it right now, but anytime you see the potential for 2,3, 4 inch per hour snowfall rates, you need to wonder. The best bet for thunder though would be closer to the center of the storm (Jersey Shore, Long Island). As far as more than 24"? It's very possible. We'll be monitoring the latest model data and adjust accordingly for 11 and for the morning.
Jeff: We said at 5 and 6 that this would not wind down until after 10 PM tomorrow. We think this will be a long duration event, with even flurries holding on through Thursday morning.
matt, great work on the blogs. we readeveryday and pray for events like this. lots of white means lots of green!!
That is great!!! I didn't get to see the 5 or 6 news I was at work and we don't get Utica down here! I was wondering considering I may have to drive to Binghamton on thurs morning!! Bring on the SNOW!
After spending two hours tonight trying to knock back the snowbanks at my house (in Whitesboro)for easier plowing by my father-in-law, I can say that while I love storms, I hate the work aspect of it.
By the way, I found it funny that while our favorite crew thinks it will be slightly heavier to the east of us toward the oneonta to albany corridor, the NBC affiliate out there thinks it will be heavier here (www.wnyt.com), with us in an 18-36 range. I trust our crew much more though. I have looked at there sight for a couple of years now and they always seem to say that everyone not in Albany will get crushed, usually us. Anyways, it is a nice map nonetheless if you can put up with the incredibly slow loading.
Good luck to all tommorow, be safe, be dry.
errr.......site I mean.
moderate snow down here in binghamton. about 1 inch so far, matt, do u think there is a possiblilty that the heaviest snow may goes east of binghamton and uitca, or do u think there is a good chance we will get into the heavy wrap around snow?
Mike...I'm going to wait and see what the 00Z NAM says (should be coming down shortly). If it holds thinking, we may a.) bump up snow totals and b.) change our geography of the highest snowfall. We'll see though.
Up to moderate snow here on Smith Hill. 00Z NAM (computer model, for any of you non-weather people) is almost in. I will post a new entry with that info by 11 PM.
Jim (Utica),
What kills me about this storm coming, is that no schools have yet announced snow days tomorrow. At times, rarely, there is that situation where, "okay, they could be wrong, it's gonna blow over or end up south of us or something", and it does end up being a big false alarm. With the rapid acceleration of tech these days, days like those are rare now. With all the media attention and all of the detail layed out in this storm, it's pretty obvious, we are going to get big time slammed. So, what are the schools waiting for? The decision makers are not very decisive, are they?
I'm not a student, but a parent who works in health care and who must make it to work tomorrow because many more lives are counting on me than my own. But I do have to plan on where my 5 year old will be taken care of.
Matt, your timing is near precision. I'm off Herkimer Road in North Utica and half an hour ago, not a flake in sight. It's 9:45 now and i look out at quite heavy snow falling rapidly. Heeeeeere weeeeee gooooooo....!
matt, 00z NAM shows about 2.5 inches of precip in the binghamton utic corridor, with 3 inches plus from just east of binghamton to oneonta to herkimer the up towards vermont.
Matt,
And the rest of the weather team, great idea with the "mirror" site!Hopefully it will help alleviate some of the sluggishness I was experiencing earlier. It took over a half hour and numerous attempts before I could get on the site.
I also wated to give kudos to the entire weather team for the outstanding job you all have done with this storm and the LES events over the last few weeks.
2-3 inches of liquid! W O W ! Is that for Herkimer and points east or does that include western Mohawk Valley and most of CNY in general? Also, is 15:1 still the most likely prec/snow ratio?
Dave (Lairdsville)
it is coming down steady in Holland Patent for the last 45 minutes. 10 degrees and very calm almost to strange (the calm before the storm)
anonymous,
quite a few syracuse area schools have starting closing, I imagine on the 11 news we will have some.
Yes, I agree with my fellow anonymous-poster. I am a student, and although snow storms don't usually excite me, I would really appreciate knowing in advance that I can sleep in tomorrow.
Do you think that the majority of CNY schools can count on a delay, at the least, for Wednesday morning?
my school is closed!! along with most other binghamton area schools.
Pat Bailey is live in Utica on the CW 11 right now. Snow sticking there...looks to be moderate. Also reports filtering in from elsewhere in CNY. Remember, send totals to weather@wktv.com!
Besides wanting to see the latest weather predictions I come here to check for closings, but haven't been able to get to the page all night. Anyone know anywhere else I can check school closings online for Herkimer County?
anonymouse student,
they will be closed, my wife is a teacher, she has not plans on being there tommorow. If you are lucky, you may even get thursday depending on how things go.
*adult note* although you may get a snow day, I urge you to do something productive, read, go outside, just not video games and t.v.
for the storm of '66 they closed schools in this area on the six o'clock news. A novel thought, very little weather technology, but some people who would make decision and stick to them.
Little Falls is showing as closed for tomorrow on another area tv channel. We have already decided snow day or not, we aren't sending our kindergartener tomorrow. We'd rather have him somewhere safe than have the school decide to close early and try to get him home safely.
little falls has already closed (CBS channel out of syracusc website)
Looks likes everyone is looking for school closings. I have a paper due for college tomorrow and I hope the it is closed!
college student.
lots of coffee and believe it or not classical music. for some reason classic music always made me focus on my thoughts for my papers at 2 or 3 in the morning.
Just looked outside. It's snowing moderately but with small flakes. No accumulation yet.
Dave (Lairdsville)
Maybe a 1/4-1/2 inch so far in mid-Montgomery Co. so far. We are going to be burried. It will take me two days to dig out :)
matt, the flakes are also very small here in binghamton, arent bigger flakes better at accumulating, will it stay small flakes the entire strom?
Snow is now coming down pretty good in Mohawk. Thank you for this blog....it's a nice way to keep up with what is going on around the area.
New entry in progress!
Does the new entry involve school closings? :]
Never fear! Schools are beginning to close. Most of the schools in Montgomery County are now closed including colleges. Herkimer County won't be too far behind.
What are we expecting for snow ratios. 20:1??? If so that would be 40" of snow or more.
This bolg ROCKS ! ! ! Have not been able to get on all day and I have a High speed connection. This loaded in a split second. Here in the village of Herkimer we have 1/4" very small flakes with a slight breeze.... Bring on the snow !! WKTV METEOROLOGISTS ROCK you all do a wonderful job thanks so much for all your hard work.
We are receiving some school closings and we'll pass those on however we can through our news department. New entry is up. As far as snow ratios... 15:1 on average, 20:1 at times...if not higher...another reason we upped totals.
Still have Blizzard Warning from Indiana to Ohio.
Wow...I'm having flashbacks to Christmas Day 2002! That's the last time we had 36 inches of snow. It took a while for winter to get here, but boy did it come hard.
And what about that darn groundhog....no shadow...I though spring was on it's way?
somewhere in PA they are roasting a little furry rodent.
I motion to permanently move the blog to blogspot, any second to that motion?
Okay, I think it's time to stop torturing the poor groundhog.
Truce?
even courts are closing out in syracuse, anybody know how much snow the region got during the blizzard of '66?
Is it trvia time? I wasn't alive in '66.
In Boonville just starting to snow and its coming down hard.
no trivia time, just wondering, I wasn't either, but some of the older guys I work with mkae it sound like it was a whopper. or as they get older the numbers get higher, one of the other.
My mother always tells me about the giant snow storms of the 60s and 70s...we just don't get snow like we used to I guess. Of course when you're 10 the snow banks always look bigger.
off to watch matt, good night and good luck
As I said earlier in the strorm of '66 Jerry Feorie (sp) announced at 6 o'clock Sunday night schools would be closed and were that way for four straight days. There was so much snow you could not use snowmobiles. Got up monday morning snow was 3/4 uo the outside door. I would say close to four feet
Snow is always deeper in Holland Patent than Floyd
I read last winter, that the finer the snowflakes the bigger the storm. I don't know if that is true!
NOthing new in the last 15 minutes must be everyone went to bed to wait it out. GOOD NIGHT
Come on school closings. I know everything will likely be closed but I want it official.
What conditions are necessary to classify a storm as a blizzard?
I've been monitoring this blog for the past week, and I think that the WKTV team has done a terrific job of getting the information out. Also, a few of the regulars seem to know what they are talking about too! I've learned so much this past week about NAM and precipitation/snow ratio's. Keep up the good work!
Anonymous, what school are you waiting to be closed? I've been monitoring the closings all night, maybe I can help?
HCCC
I have a paper due tomorrow and I'm hoping for no class.
I saw some closing on this news broadcast, but it is far from complete. After checking news in Syracuse and Albany there are MANY more schools closed that are not listed by this station.
The Bizzard of '66---well I was just five years old, living in Deerfield, but I have pics of the snow drifts as high as my parents one story ranch roof. Utica was closed down for days, goceries were delivered by snowmobiles---there were only a few in town at that time. Will have to ask my Mom about snow totals---I would guess six plus feet.
In the MOhawk region back in the 60s and 70s snow would fall and stay on the ground from the beginning of November through early April. Snow banks were so high from a car you could not see over them.
Kinda of like what REdfield looks like today!!!! That was every day in gretaer Utica area.
Well 6 feet, that's nothing compared to what Oswego got this week. I can't even picture 12 feet of snow!
"Blizzards are severe winter storms that pack a combination of blowing snow and wind resulting in very low visibilities. While heavy snowfalls and severe cold often accompany blizzards, they are not required. Sometimes strong winds pick up snow that has already fallen, creating a blizzard. Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as large amounts of falling OR blowing snow with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 of a mile for an extended period of time (greater than 3 hours). When these conditions are expected, the National Weather Service may issue a "Blizzard Warning". When a less severe, but still dangerous, winter storm is expected a "Winter storm Watch" or "Winter storm Warning" may be issued. A "Winter storm Watch" is issued in advance and means that there is the possibility of a winter storm affecting your area. Keep alert and stay tuned to TV, radio, and other sources of weather information. A "Winter storm Warning" means a winter storm is imminent or already occurring."
Paul Cardinali, a local weather watcher since high school, said during the Great Blizzard of 1966, a three-day nor'easter left the region buried under almost 200 inches -- 16 feet -- of snow.
From the article it sounds like it was out towards the lake more but alas I doubt were gonna come close to that..
You can read some more here...
http://www.timesunion.com/ASPStories/Story.asp?StoryID=561378&Category=STATE&LinkFrom=RSS
A quick Google turned up this info about the blizzard of '66---I stand corrected:
Blizzard of 1966
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
The Blizzard of '66 is to date the most famous blizzard to hit Oswego, New York and holds the record for the most snowfall in a single storm in Oswego.
It began as a nor'easter which effected the New York City metro area and was followed by heavy "wraparound" lake-effect snows. Winds were more then 60 mph. during the storm and at Fair Haven NY they are believed to have exceeded 100 mph. The snow was badly drifted and roads and schools closed as long as a week. Drifts covered entire 2 story houses.
A total of 102" of snow was recorded at Oswego NY, 50" of this falling on the last day of the storm alone. 50" of snow were also recorded at Camden NY on the same day. The last day of the blizzard the winds subsided and snowburst conditions prevailed, with the snow falling straight down. Fair Haven did not have official snowfall records at the time, but state troopers reported measuring 100" of snow on the level, where none had been prior to the storm. Syracuse received a record snowfall of 42.3" which remained their heaviest storm on record, until the Blizzard of 1993.
The storm lasted from Jan. 27th- Jan. 31st 1966, a total of 4 1/2 days. The daily snowfall totals for Oswego are as follows.
27th 8" 28th 12" 29th 11" 30th 21" 31st 50"
Wow, that's amazing. They have higher totals now, but not from "one" storm. I can't imagine snow drifts covering a house!
Right now with 12 feet of snow there I'm sure there are one story houses covered. You really have to wonder about the structural problems many buildings/houses may have with all of that weight.
In the blizzard of '66 it was the drifts that were as high as the house not snow totals--but still impressive---I can remember looking out my dining room window and seeing a wall of snow. My brother was standing at the top of the snow mound trying to shovel out the windows so light would come into the house--this was Deerfield right outside of North Utica in '66.
I don't see that HCCC is closed yet for tomorrow. I know that most of the colleges around my area, which is closest to the Albany area, are closed. Sorry...good luck on your paper!
I work at a local school and I used to work at a local radio station. I now tease the kids that "I know the password that schools must report to close!" although I would never give that piece of info up! The fact of the matter is this - schools want to get in at least a half day to qualify for their state aid. Therefore, in my school the head of the custodians does an early morning run to determine if it's safe enough for the busses in the absolute worst areas (hills, etc) of the district. Then he tells the superintendent his advice. Also, there are several schools in the area that share school lunch services - if one is closed, the all will close (this generally applies to New Hartford, Whitesboro & Clinton). I have already advised my students that school will close - that's why I'm up so late!!! Enjoy...
Who can sleep!!!! This is too exciting not to watch! Its 1:15am and its coming down somewhat moderately (sorry , not very offical sounding :/), although seems pretty calm so far, with little or no wind to report as of yet. I bet we have a good inch or two maybe outside. Will check back later :)
I LIKE SNOW AN ALL BUT AM DEFINETLY GLAD I DONT LIVE IN IT ANYMORE,USE TO LIVE ON TOP OF DEERFIELD HILL ON TRENTON RD AND GREW UP IN CNY.BUT NOW LIVE IN TENNESSEE AND DONT SEE SNOW.LUCKY TO SEE A TRACE HERE AND IF THEY EVEN SAY IT WILL SNOW SCHOOLS CLOSE LOL.
What sounded like sleet for at least the last hour has turn over to steady snow. Relatively small flakes but falling fast - none of that white fluffy, floaty stuff here.
It looks like a total Nightmare outside.. This is ridiculous..I wonder if my plow guy would give me 2 plows today for 30$? i usually pay him 25% per time
Good morning!
I am a DFAS - Rome employee. We have 6 inches on the ground here in Blossvale and I have seen no plows come through here in hours.
Happy Valentines Day and please, if you must travel do so safely!!!
Here in E. Winfield the snow is heavy and coming down hard. Looks to be about 6-8 inches already. I closed the office today, so I just get to watch the storm all day! There's nothing like a great Nor'easter! Originally from Boston, so I am remembering the blizzard of '78. I know that dates me, but what the heck!
I have been up since about 5am here in oriskany with my son and I have not seen any plows go by at all..
HI guys and Gals. First of you all are doing a great job. Extra Java in the jug for ya. My question is this. Besides using wktv I also love to check out the doppler on another site (intellicast.com)It looks as iff the storm is just going to blow on throught. Is this the case or is the costal Low going to funnel snow back to the East. Thanks All Matthew C.
Are there really no comments on here since before 7 am? How are the roads out there? Will we still get 24-30", or is the nor'easter swinging more to the east?
We are in Mohawk, and the snow is really coming down..has been for hours. It is very deep and all I see on the roads are trucks. Quiet except for the snowblowers that keep on going! I can only see my street and the main street in Mohawk, and there sure aren't very many cars out there!
Hello, Mohawk! It looks like you'll get more of the brunt of things than we in Westernville. Noticed after I sent the last post that the NWS posted a special weather statement for northern Oneida Co. at 8:30am that we would get 1-3" more by mid-day; sounded like that would be it for us, as this notice came after other info. Syracuse WSYR9 has reduced their expectations as well. We'll see what the WKTV weather team says at noon.
Well, here is a Mohawk update! It is snowing hard and now those winds are really starting to blow! It is definitely not very nice out there! Looks like this wind is going to really make it difficult to keep up with shoveling and plowing as it is really blowing around. How is it in other places out there? Has anyone been on 5S between the valley and Utica?
SOUTH SIDE of Little Falls ...WE HAD AN AVALANCHE WITHIN THE LAST 20 MINUTES!!!!OMG
Anonymous....are you pulling our chains? An avalanche?
Was the avalanche in Little Falls different than the Ilion Gorge avalanche? Yes right??? Holy Cow!!!!
Now we've got eleven inches--its heavier and really blowing--very poor visibility!!!!!
no matt i'm not pulling your chain...lol...we have pics....
S. Carney Flint Ave. Little Falls
S. Carney,
Great! Can you e-mail those pictures to me at jerry.walsh@wktv.com. We will post them on-line and show them on the air.
Thanks for the information and the tip...
Jerry Walsh - WKTV
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